The principles of money

Happy 2024! I hope that your new year is starting off on the right foot.  I wanted to share my view and what I expect to see in the overall market.

Disclaimer: You are responsible for your own investment decisions.  Do not use any information on this blog as a means of investment advice.  These are just my ideas, and if you’ve been following me for a while, you know how erroneous those can be.  And I will continue to misjudge the market at times.  I make the best decisions for my portfolio based off my thesis.  Your decisions must come from your own research. Don’t copy my paper, do your on work. 

Sector Rotation

I believe that we will see sector rotation into Healthcare and Real Estate in 2024.  In 2023, the healthcare sector ETF XLV was flat. It saw a mere 0.68% increase in value.  The Real Estate ETF XLRE saw 8.07% growth at year end.  I believe that the first half of 2024 will see continued growth in these two sectors.  I believe this growth will cool off in Q3 as profit taking and the presidential election bring choppy conditions.  I am expecting to see 10% growth in both sectors by year end of 2024. 

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies will see its name in lights again this year as Bitcoin (BTC) Halving is expected to take place in Q2.  The date is unknown to anyone.  It is noted that after each halving the price of BTC sees an increase in value over time.  Many investors are expecting no different this year. It is said that a rising tide lifts all boats.  As the price of bitcoin increases, I expect other currencies to see a rise in valuation also.  My price target for BTC is $85,000 by year end.

2024 Presidential Elections

I believe that the 2024 elections will have little impact on the overall market.  I believe that while we will see periods of fear, we will stabilize quickly after the results are announced.  I believe that at the end of 2024 we will see a shift to a pro-business atmosphere.  Decreased interest rates will be a boost for companies, banks, housing, and lenders.  Companies such as start-ups who rely on low-cost funding will see their businesses mature at faster rates.

Consumer Sediment

Consumers will continue to remain choosy about how and where they spend their money.  I believe that consumer debts will continue to increase as interest rates and inflation slowly decrease.  The Consumer Discretionary Sector will continue to see growth as money becomes cheaper for consumers.  I believe that soon, debt will become a hinderance for market growth.  Consumers with access to credit will spend more on big purchases due to lower interest rates.  These include houses, vehicles, and boats.

We hope that this outlook will encourage you to build a thesis of your own.  I will be using this thesis to develop my investing strategy.  We will revisit this thesis mid-year and at year end to see how my predictions panned out.  What is your outlook for 2024?